It shouldn't come as any surprise that the federal government changes the way it computes statistics. Sometimes there are good reasons (e.g., seasonal adjustments make a lot of sense). However, sometimes it seems they're just trying to make a bad situation look a little better.
shadowstats.com is nice alternative perspective on such items and the unemployment rate and the inflation rate.
Sunday, February 13, 2011
Kodachrome is Dead
For those of us of a certain age, it is sad to hear that the last Kodachrome processor has shut its doors.
I recognize the superiority, in many ways, of digital media, along with the Moore's Law dynamics that drive it. I suppose my nostalgia is similar to those who mourned the passing of the horse and buggy, but that doesn't make it any less real.
I recognize the superiority, in many ways, of digital media, along with the Moore's Law dynamics that drive it. I suppose my nostalgia is similar to those who mourned the passing of the horse and buggy, but that doesn't make it any less real.
One Reason I don't like Skype ...
... is that it's a peer-to-peer network. See this post on its recent crash for some high level details.
Compounding 1 Million+ fewer children per year
Two recent stories (links below) reminded me that only the religious press discusses the fact that roughly 1 million children per year have been aborted since Roe v. Wade. Seems like this would be a contributing factor to the "STEM crisis"
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/The-Vote/2010/1221/2010-census-results-Why-did-US-population-growth-slow
http://www.latimes.com/health/boostershots/la-heb-birth-rate-20101221,0,10406.story
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/The-Vote/2010/1221/2010-census-results-Why-did-US-population-growth-slow
http://www.latimes.com/health/boostershots/la-heb-birth-rate-20101221,0,10406.story
The STEM Crisis
If you follow education, you know that there's been a lot of noise recently about the dramatic decline in Americans getting degrees (especially advanced degrees) in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM). This recent report (free; registration required) from the National Academies of Science, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine is typical.
What I find most striking is the complete absence of any discussion of such fundamental factors as (a) the family, (b) the disintegration of marriage, and (c) the social fragmentation associated with modernism. I'm sure there's lots of good work here, but it seems ineffective at best to focus on fourth and fifth order effects and ignore the fundamentals that are driving this shift.
Reminds me of the old cliche about scientists climbing up the mountain and finding theologians at the top.
What I find most striking is the complete absence of any discussion of such fundamental factors as (a) the family, (b) the disintegration of marriage, and (c) the social fragmentation associated with modernism. I'm sure there's lots of good work here, but it seems ineffective at best to focus on fourth and fifth order effects and ignore the fundamentals that are driving this shift.
Reminds me of the old cliche about scientists climbing up the mountain and finding theologians at the top.
Wealth in Medieval England
An interesting article on how average income in Medieval England was double the average of the poorest nations today. Seems to cohere with the view that the era was not the "Dark Ages" (a pejorative created by those promoting the humanism of the Renaissance and the Enlightenment).
Are "Facts" Declining?
This interesting article ("The Truth Wears Off") in The New Yorker discusses something that is disconcerting to the positivist ... researchers in a number of fields are finding it hard to verify studies that seem to be solidly grounded in the scientific method.
I was struck by the fact that most of the examples dealt with behavioral research (which is exploring a very different landscape than, say, physics or chemistry). Regardless, it's an interesting reminder of the limits of modernism.
I was struck by the fact that most of the examples dealt with behavioral research (which is exploring a very different landscape than, say, physics or chemistry). Regardless, it's an interesting reminder of the limits of modernism.
What We Can't Not Know
J. Budziszewski, professor in the departments of Government and Philosophy UT Austin and an ethical and political philosopher, is one of the leading thinkers in considering what is universal and objective in human moral understanding. I recently finished his book "What We Can't Not Know" and highly recommend it if you're interested in human moral knowledge.
However, I realize most folks have limited time for such reading ... so, "The Revenge of Conscience" (First Things, June/July 1998) is a short summary of some of the key points. Required reading for anyone interested in what, if anything, an individual can understand about morality from general revelation.
By the way, his story is interesting ... he was hired because he was, at that time, a leading proponent of relativism in ethics. He later became a Christian (after being granted tenure) and continues to disappoint those who hired him.
However, I realize most folks have limited time for such reading ... so, "The Revenge of Conscience" (First Things, June/July 1998) is a short summary of some of the key points. Required reading for anyone interested in what, if anything, an individual can understand about morality from general revelation.
By the way, his story is interesting ... he was hired because he was, at that time, a leading proponent of relativism in ethics. He later became a Christian (after being granted tenure) and continues to disappoint those who hired him.
"Values" as a novel concept
We tend to take for granted that the word "values" and the concept it represents are universal and timeless. The idea that morality is subjective and individualistic is so pervasive that most Westerners see it as a self-evident truth and find it difficult to even conceptualize an alternative truth claim.
The evidence indicates otherwise; most times and places see morality as objective and found in all "humans" (though who is "human" is often limited to "those who are of my tribe or culture").
Two data points:
1. The term "morals" declines and the term "values" grows dramatically from 1800 to 2000 - see this comparison generated by Google's very cool Ngrams tool
2. Chapter 3 of this doctoral dissertation discusses the history of the concept.
The evidence indicates otherwise; most times and places see morality as objective and found in all "humans" (though who is "human" is often limited to "those who are of my tribe or culture").
Two data points:
1. The term "morals" declines and the term "values" grows dramatically from 1800 to 2000 - see this comparison generated by Google's very cool Ngrams tool
2. Chapter 3 of this doctoral dissertation discusses the history of the concept.
"Emergence Magic"
Almost 25 years ago, I became intrigued by developments in science and math that have come to be known various labels, including "complex adaptive systems", "the mathematics of chaos", and "emergence." Through the 1990's I read a variety of books (popular & technical) and journal articles in these areas trying to better understand both the promise and the limitations of what was a radical shift in perspective (from top-down and reductionist to bottom-up and emergent).
While some of the work in these areas has been helpful in solving difficult problems (e.g, via agent-based systems), and I think that a grasp of the basic concepts is essential to anyone working with large complex systems, most of the initial hype has faded.
So, what was all the fuss about? It was, at a fundamental level I think, about whether information-intensive objects, structures and processes could spontaneously emerge under the right conditions (e.g., information networks with connections that are neither too numerous or too few ... the "edge of chaos") ... what I've come to think of as "emergence magic."
If such a thing could be achieved, then we would have the first demonstrable naturalistic explanation of where life came from and how its pervasive information-intensive objects, structures and processes came into being. And, we would have the promise of a powerful new tool for creating information-intensive capabilities that might very well increase computer hardware and software productivity by many orders of magnitude.
This article by Douglas Axe summarizes the latest of a long string of research that indicates that "emergence magic" is probably exactly that .... "magic." Although the emergence of higher levels of order is a pervasive feature of the universe (e.g., relatively simple individual behaviors in an ant colony results in much more complex behaviors at the colony level), it appears increasingly clear that emergence must be designed in. And, we have almost no understanding of how to design emergence.
While some of the work in these areas has been helpful in solving difficult problems (e.g, via agent-based systems), and I think that a grasp of the basic concepts is essential to anyone working with large complex systems, most of the initial hype has faded.
So, what was all the fuss about? It was, at a fundamental level I think, about whether information-intensive objects, structures and processes could spontaneously emerge under the right conditions (e.g., information networks with connections that are neither too numerous or too few ... the "edge of chaos") ... what I've come to think of as "emergence magic."
If such a thing could be achieved, then we would have the first demonstrable naturalistic explanation of where life came from and how its pervasive information-intensive objects, structures and processes came into being. And, we would have the promise of a powerful new tool for creating information-intensive capabilities that might very well increase computer hardware and software productivity by many orders of magnitude.
This article by Douglas Axe summarizes the latest of a long string of research that indicates that "emergence magic" is probably exactly that .... "magic." Although the emergence of higher levels of order is a pervasive feature of the universe (e.g., relatively simple individual behaviors in an ant colony results in much more complex behaviors at the colony level), it appears increasingly clear that emergence must be designed in. And, we have almost no understanding of how to design emergence.
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